LOS ANGELES — Discouraged by stubborn poll numbers and pessimistic political consultants, major financial backers of same-sex marriage are cautioning gay rights groups to delay a campaign to overturn California’s ban on such unions until at least 2012.
Earlier this year,
many supporters of same-sex marriage seemed eager to mount a 2010 campaign to
overturn Proposition 8, which was passed by
California
voters in November and defined marriage as “between a man and a woman.”
But the timing of
another campaign has since been questioned by several of the movement’s big
donors, including David Bohnett, a millionaire philanthropist and technology
entrepreneur who gave more than $1 million to the unsuccessful campaign to
defeat Proposition 8.
“In conversations with
a number of my fellow major No on 8 donors,” Mr. Bohnett said in an e-mail
message, “I find that they share my sentiment: namely, that we will step up to
the plate — with resources and talent — when the time is right.”
“The only thing worse
than losing in 2008,” he added, “would be to lose again in 2010.”
The issue of when to
go back to the polls was also the central topic at a contentious “leadership
summit” held Saturday at a church in San Bernardino, east of Los Angeles, where
about 200 gay rights advocates gathered to discuss their next step. It was the
second large meeting of gay leaders since late May when the California Supreme
Court ruled against a legal challenge to Proposition 8, which passed with 52
percent of the vote.
Shortly after the
court’s decision, officials at Equality California, one of the largest gay
rights groups in
California
,
issued an online plea for donations for a possible 2010 campaign, citing a need
to capitalize on anger over the decision and on the seeming momentum from the
recent legalization of same-sex marriage in several other states.
But that thinking has
apparently evolved.
Marc Solomon, marriage
director for Equality California, said he spent June and early July asking the
opinions of nearly two dozen
California
political consultants and pollsters and had been surprised by the almost
unanimous opinion that a 2010 race was a bad idea.
“I expected having
watched the protests and the real pain that the L.G.B.T. community had
experienced that there would be some real measurable remorse in the
electorate,” Mr. Solomon said, referring to lesbian, gay, bisexual and
transgender people. “But if you look at the poll numbers since November, they
really haven’t moved at all.”
A major factor in any
California
balloting, of course, is money; campaigns here are remarkably expensive, with a
number of costly media markets. The Proposition 8 campaign, for example, cost
more than $80 million, with opponents spending some $43 million.
Sarah Callahan, chief
operating officer of the Courage Campaign, a 700,000-member advocacy group in
Los
Angeles
, told the gathering on Saturday that the two
critical elements to persuade donors were organization and a winning plan. “No
one is going to invest in chaos,” Ms. Callahan said, adding, “The money will
come if you can show you can win.”
With less than 16
months until possible voting in 2010, Mr. Solomon said several major donors
seemed skeptical that there was enough time.
“And we know without
significant investments early on, its going to be extremely difficult to move
people,” he said.
The argument against
2010 was expressed by a new coalition of groups known as Prepare to Prevail,
which announced in a statement on July 13 that going back to the ballot next
year “would be rushed and risky.”
“We should proceed
with a costly, demanding and high-stakes electoral campaign of this sort only
when we are confident we can win,” the statement read.
The issue of timing
has increasingly divided gay rights advocates, with larger, more established
groups seemingly favoring a more cautious approach and grass-roots groups —
some of them formed since the November election — more vocal in support of a
quick return to the polls.
John M. Cleary,
president of a
Los Angeles
group called the Stonewall Democratic Club, said many younger activists were
particularly eager to fight Proposition 8. “I find the language of some of the
organizations really self-defeating,” Mr. Cleary said. “And I think we have a
moral obligation to overturn this.”
He and others who support a 2010 campaign say they have a number
of factors in their favor, including a newly galvanized base, a decline in
advertising costs in a depressed television market and two potential Democratic
candidates for governor — Attorney General Jerry Brown and Mayor Gavin Newsom of San Francisco — who
have been outspoken in support of same-sex marriage.
But some national
leaders are dismissive of such arguments.
“A slapdash effort
based on wishful thinking, rosy scenarios, and passion, is not enough to win
on,” said Hans Johnson, a board member of the National Gay and Lesbian Task
Force.
Under
California
law, language for a 2010 proposition would need to be submitted to the
secretary of state by late September, and then some 700,000 signatures gathered
to qualify for the ballot.
Opponents of the 2010
campaign say that window is simply too small to change the opinions of enough
voters to win, including groups in which Proposition 8 was popular, like
African-Americans, religious conservatives and the elderly.
“What we’ve learned is
that yes, you can change hearts and minds, but it takes time, focused energy,
and money,” said Matt Foreman, the program director of the Evelyn and Walter
Haas Jr. Fund, a frequent donor to gay rights causes. “And once a measure is on
the ballot and the campaign begins, its almost impossible to change anyone’s
mind, because people are being bombarded with lies.”
For opponents of
same-sex marriage, meanwhile, the debate among gay rights advocates has been
entertaining.
“The other side has
said they will not move forward with an initiative until they are sure they can
win,” said Frank Schubert, a spokesman for ProtectMarriage.com, the leading group
behind Proposition 8. “That day is not going to come.”
Mr. Bohnett, as a
major donor to the previous fight against the measure, suggested that one
benchmark for giving to another campaign would be higher poll numbers for the
issue. Support for same-sex marriage in
California
is currently in the high 40s, short of a majority.
“Short of winning with
60 percent or more of the vote,” Mr. Bohnett said in his e-mail message, “we
will be subject to another initiative to overturn marriage equality, and our
resources are better deployed elsewhere.”
Other donors have also
expressed trepidation. Leonie Walker and her partner, Kate O’Hanlan, run a laparoscopic
surgery practice in
Portola Valley
,
Calif.
, and donated more than
$100,000 to fight Proposition 8. Ms. Walker said she and Ms. O’Hanlan had “no
regrets” about their 2008 donations, but would hope for a better result if they
were to give money to another campaign.
“I don’t know that you
could convince us right now that 2010 is a good investment,” Ms. Walker said.
“I wish it wasn’t so, but that’s just how it is right now.”
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